Interactive Geopolitics

Infographic: How a Middle East War Came for Southeast Asia

The Third Gulf War — launched on 28 February 2026 when the US and Israel struck Iran in Operation Epic Fury — has hit Southeast Asia hard and fast, choking off

Akhyari Hananto

May 16, 2026 7:44 PM GMT+7

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Data Sources

ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute · Published 12 May 2026 · Ian Storey

The Third Gulf War — launched on 28 February 2026 when the US and Israel struck Iran in Operation Epic Fury — has hit Southeast Asia hard and fast, choking off the oil, gas, and fertilisers that flow through the Strait of Hormuz and sending fuel prices surging 50% across the region, driving up food costs, grounding fishing fleets, and slashing tourist arrivals. Governments from Manila to Rangoon scrambled with emergency measures — rationing, school cuts, flight suspensions — while ASEAN rallied around a cautiously neutral stance, condemning no single party but quietly absorbing the economic blow. The conflict is reshaping the region's geopolitics too: American credibility is eroding as US military assets shift from Asia to the Gulf, China is stepping in as an energy lifeline, and Russia is selling oil and nuclear reactors to countries that once shunned it. Even if the ceasefire holds, the damage to critical infrastructure means Southeast Asia faces higher prices, slower growth, and deeper strategic uncertainty well into 2027 — all for a war it neither started nor wanted.

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